000
ABNT20 KNHC 141151
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas 
coastal plain near Houston.

A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system 
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to 
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are 
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple 
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across 
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or 
two a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central 
Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.  
Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and 
a tropical depression could form later this week while the system 
moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart