000
ABNT20 KNHC 140557
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Nicholas, located right along the middle Texas 
coast. 

A tropical wave located just west of the African coast is 
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are 
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this 
disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward at 
about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form by midweek a couple of 
hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a 
tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.  Some gradual 
development of this system is forecast thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form later this week while the system moves 
north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin