000
ABNT20 KNHC 110554
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada. 

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central 
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are 
associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level 
trough.  Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are 
expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday 
while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the 
coast of northeastern Mexico.  Further development of this system 
will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over 
water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast 
should monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce 
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan 
Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.  
By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the 
western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through 
the middle of next week.  Localized significant rainfall amounts 
will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and 
thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally 
westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of 
Africa early next week.  Some development of this system will be 
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg