000
ABNT20 KNHC 100525
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles 
north-northeast of Bermuda, and has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy, located a few hundred miles east of 
Charleston, South Carolina. 

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, 
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula.  This system is forecast to 
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface 
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support 
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form Sunday or 
Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of 
Mexico coast. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa later today or tonight.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the 
progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown