000
ABNT20 KNHC 280546
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ida, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico just 
north of the western tip of Cuba. 

A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of 
thunderstorms near and to the northeast of its center. Additional 
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form later today before the system moves into an 
environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler 
waters on Sunday.  The disturbance is forecast to move slowly 
west-northwestward through this morning, then turn northward this 
afternoon and evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic 
several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized 
showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be only marginally conducive for development. However, a 
tropical depression could still form by early next week.  By 
midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. 
The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight and 
Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central 
north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa 
by the middle of next week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions 
appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of 
next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart