000
ABNT20 KNHC 250547
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western 
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently 
located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near or 
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the western Gulf of 
Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles 
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Only slow development of 
this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable 
upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected 
to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
turns eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less 
conducive for development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven