000
ABNT20 KNHC 152057
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to updated the discussion 
of the low-pressure system northeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on 
Tropical Depression Grace, located over the northeastern 
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the 
Dominican Republic. 

Updated:  Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm 
activity has become better organized this afternoon in association 
with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about 
160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for continued development, and if these development 
trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the 
low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, 
near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, 
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island 
later tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown