000
ABNT20 KNHC 091736
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure 
located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show 
signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates 
that the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 
to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of 
the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm 
watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with 
shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, 
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and 
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms in association with an elongated low 
pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser 
Antilles have diminished.  Environmental conditions have become
unfavorable and development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin