000
ABNT20 KNHC 082345
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located about 400 miles east-southeast of the 
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical 
depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at 
about 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the 
Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin 
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around 
the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings could 
be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward 
Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains 
and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in 
association with an elongated low pressure system located over the 
tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and 
the Lesser Antilles. Although environmental conditions appear to be 
only marginally conducive for development, this system could still 
become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward 
the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart