000
ABNT20 KNHC 241124
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing this 
morning to the east of a small area of low pressure located more 
than 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados.  Increasing upper-level 
winds are likely to prevent further development of this system 
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 
about 10 mph.  This disturbance could produce increased shower 
activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser 
Antilles over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A strong tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of Africa this 
morning.  Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool over 
the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive for 
development, a small tropical depression could form by early next 
week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 
15 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi