863 
ABNT20 KNHC 240511
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues to the east 
of a small area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of 
Barbados.  Increasing upper-level winds are likely to prevent 
further development of this system during the next couple of days 
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.  This disturbance 
could produce increased shower activity and some gusty winds when it 
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa 
later today.  Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool 
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive 
for development, a small tropical depression could form by early 
next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at about 15 
mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg