000
ABNT20 KNHC 232328
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little bit during 
the past several hours to the east of a small area of low pressure 
located a couple of hundred miles east of Barbados.  However, 
increasing upper-level winds are likely to prevent further 
development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at 
about 10 mph.  This disturbance could produce increased shower 
activity and some gusty winds when it moves across the Lesser 
Antilles on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of 
Africa overnight and on Thursday.  Some development of this system 
is possible late this week and into early next week while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical 
eastern and central Atlantic Ocean, where ocean temperatures are 
only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg