000
ABNT20 KNHC 170540
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the eastern portion of the 
Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized 
showers and a few thunderstorms.  This system will move little 
today, and little if any development is expected during that time 
due to interaction with land and unfavorable upper-level winds.  
However, the low should begin to move northward by this afternoon, 
and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form by late 
tonight or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of 
Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if 
necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue 
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next 
few days.  Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the 
northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  Please consult products from your 
local meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart