000
ABNT20 KNHC 140540
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of 
Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow 
development of this disturbance is possible during the next few 
days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical 
depression could form late in the week when the system begins to 
move slowly northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is 
possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during 
the next several days.  Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 
100 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.  Satellite and 
radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become a 
little more concentrated near the center this morning. Furthermore, 
recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate 
that the circulation has become better defined, although the system 
is still interacting with a frontal boundary. The low is forecast to 
move northeastward for the next few days while passing over or near 
the warm Gulf Stream today and Tuesday, which could allow for some 
tropical development to occur while the system moves away from the 
United States.  The low should move over colder waters south of Nova 
Scotia by early Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart