000
ABNT20 KNHC 132316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche 
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the system has 
changed little in organization since earlier today.  Some slow 
development is possible during the next few days while the low
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could 
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly 
northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible 
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the 
next several days.  Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 150 miles 
south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to 
move northeastward for the next few days near the Gulf Stream 
waters,  which could allow for some tropical development to occur 
while it moves away from the United States.  The low should be over 
cold waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch