000
ABNT20 KNHC 131747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche 
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the overall 
system has become somewhat better organized since yesterday.  Slow 
development is possible during the next few days while the system 
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could 
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly 
northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible 
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the 
next several days.  Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure has formed about 150 miles 
south of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to move
northeastward for the next few days near the warm Gulf Stream, 
which could allow for some tropical development to occur while it 
moves away from the United States.  The low should be over cold 
waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake