000
ABNT20 KNHC 220532
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure area 
located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda continues to produce 
gale-force winds and appears to have acquired subtropical 
characteristics.  In addition, thunderstorm activity has been 
gradually increasing near the center, and if that trend continues 
advisories will be issued later this morning.  The low is expected 
to move little today, remaining in the vicinity of Bermuda, but it 
is forecast to turn northeastward and move into a more hostile 
environment on Sunday.  Additional information on this low pressure 
area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean 
Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm 
watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

A well-defined low pressure area is approaching the Texas coast and 
is now about 50 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi.  Surface 
observations and satellite wind data indicate that the system 
continues to produce winds of about 35 mph near and to the east of 
its center, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
remains limited. Since the low is expected to move inland during 
the next several hours, the chances of it becoming a tropical 
depression or storm are decreasing.  Regardless of development, 
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of 
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana today. Given the 
complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the 
Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, 
urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region.  
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be 
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service 
Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi