000
ABNT20 KNHC 190548
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization in 
association with a large non-tropical low pressure system located 
about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda.  Although environmental 
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for 
development during the next day or so, a subtropical or tropical 
depression could still develop later today or on Tuesday. However, 
upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for tropical 
cyclone formation by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low 
meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. See NOAA High Seas 
Forecast products for more details on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of this 
system is possible late this week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service can 
be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart