000
ABNT20 KNHC 182339
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large non-tropical low 
pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda remain 
poorly organized and displaced mainly to the east of the low-level 
center. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally 
conducive for development during the next day or two. Although a 
subtropical or tropical depression could still develop during that 
time, upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for 
tropical cyclone formation to occur by late Tuesday and Wednesday 
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of this 
system is possible late this week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart