000
ABNT20 KNHC 180501
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low 
pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda 
have not become significantly better organized over the past 
several hours.  Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical 
depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or 
two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of 
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while 
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch