000
ABNT20 KNHC 040549
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the 
extreme southern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is 
located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles 
southeast of Jamaica. Although the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental 
conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next couple of days. The system should move west-northwestward at 
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today and 
Monday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty 
winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, 
and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on 
those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic.  Some 
slow development of this system is possible during the next couple 
of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph.  Significant development is not expected beyond that time 
due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is 
associated with a surface trough of low pressure.  This system 
is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, 
and some slow development is possible during the next couple of 
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart