000
ABNT20 KNHC 021141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with 
the broad low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
continues to become better organized.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical 
storm to form later today or on Saturday if the system remains over 
the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf 
of Mexico.  Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central 
America should monitor the progress of this system while it moves 
generally northwestward, as tropical storm watches or warnings may 
be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight.  
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern 
Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several 
days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, 
accompanied by locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.  This wave 
is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next 
several days, and environmental conditions could become a little 
more conducive for development when the system is over the central 
or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch