000
ABNT20 KNHC 020546
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with 
the broad low pressure are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is 
becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to 
form later today or Saturday if the system remains over the waters 
of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.  
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America 
should monitor the progress of this system as it moves generally 
northwestward, as tropical storm watches or warning may be required 
for portions of these areas later today or tonight.  Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, with 
possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, 
Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days.  An 
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, 
accompanied by locally rainfall and gusty winds.  This wave is 
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several 
days, and environmental conditions could become a little more 
conducive for development when the system is over the central or 
western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven