000
ABNT20 KNHC 011139
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico, 
possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Saturday.  Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula 
of Mexico, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is 
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions 
could become a little more conducive for development when the system 
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg