000
ABNT20 KNHC 010512
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean 
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low 
pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest 
Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity 
of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region, 
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the 
system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and 
western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the 
Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized 
shower activity.  This disturbance is forecast to move westward 
during the next several days where environmental conditions could 
become a little more conducive for development over the central or 
western Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto