000
ABNT20 KNHC 110542
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on 
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending 
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the 
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a 
surface trough of low pressure.  This system is forecast to 
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida later today and 
moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  
Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly 
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. 
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce 
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys 
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico.  Although the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system 
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the 
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of 
the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of 
this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form within the next few days while the system moves generally 
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa this weekend.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the 
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven