000
ABNT20 KNHC 192327
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is 
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the 
central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better 
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple 
of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras 
and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. 
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce 
heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and 
southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about 
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better 
defined.  In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are 
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be 
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward 
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands 
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could 
be required as early as this evening. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  This wave is expected to move over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development 
is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 
15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi