000
ABNT20 KNHC 180511
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  This 
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is forecast to 
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central 
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to 
limit significant development.  After that time, however, the system 
is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western 
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for 
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of 
this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern 
Leeward Islands this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a little over 700 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a 
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms displaced to the 
west of an elongated surface circulation.  Environmental conditions 
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central 
and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts