000
ABNT20 KNHC 281129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of 
the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and 
thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the 
system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy 
41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near 
tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will 
provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional 
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to 
form during the next couple of days while the system moves 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward 
Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely 
across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and 
continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands. 
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical 
storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area 
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky