000
ABNT20 KNHC 201746
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the central and 
northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are 
associated with a tropical wave.  This system is expected to move 
west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today and 
tonight, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across 
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on 
Thursday.   Environmental conditions could become a little more 
conducive for development of this system once it reaches the Gulf 
of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little 
in organization during the past several hours.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development 
of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at 
10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.  By Friday and over the 
weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for 
tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area is 
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The associated 
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better 
organized during the past several hours.  However, the system is 
expected to move inland over Texas tonight or Tuesday before 
significant additional development can occur.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or 
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven