000
ABNT20 KNHC 152309
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located near the northeastern Cabo Verde
Islands.

A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico,
Guatemala, and the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another
tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to
produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico and Central
America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday,
the disturbance is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche and
gradually turn northward. Some gradual development is possible
after the disturbance moves over water and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone could form later this week over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky