000
ABNT20 KNHC 151729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located less than 200 miles east of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche.
This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern
Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large
portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which
could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located less than 500 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level
winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system,
and further development of this system is not anticipated while
the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart