000
ABNT20 KNHC 131751
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles south-southeast of Nova
Scotia, Canada.

A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system, has emerged over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean
just west of the coast of Guinea-Bissau.  Showers and thunderstorms
are beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a
tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance
moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the
Cabo Verde Islands.  Strong upper-level winds should prevent any
significant development by midweek.  Interests in and around the
Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located along the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
most of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and much
of Central America.  This system is forecast to continue moving
west-northwestward across northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras,
southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which will inhibit
tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land
interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized thunderstorm activity and strong gusty winds
to near gale force in the northern portion of the wave. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
to occur during the next few days while the system moves westward at
around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the
southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become
quite hostile for any significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart