000
ABNT20 KNHC 130507
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Nova Scotia,
Canada.

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward toward Central
America, and some development is possible if the low remains over
water when it is near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and
Belize on Monday and Tuesday.  Regardless of development, this
system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions
of western Africa.  This wave is expected to move off the coast
later today, and although tropical cyclone formation in this area is
climatologically unlikely this late in the hurricane season, some
development of the system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward toward the Cabo Verde
Islands.  Strong upper-level winds should prevent additional
development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi