000
ABNT20 KNHC 112343
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Melissa, located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of the
New England coast.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea this weekend.  This system is forecast to
move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday.  Although
tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely
this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system
is possible early next week while it moves generally northwestward
near or over the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Berg