000
ABNT20 KNHC 072308
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores is producing gale-force winds.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for
the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next day or two, and this system could become a tropical
or subtropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday while it moves slowly
westward.  Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
further development by Wednesday evening.  Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located over the western Atlantic
between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda
are associated with a dissipating frontal boundary.  This system is
forecast to move northwestward and could acquire some subtropical
characteristics later in the week while it meanders off the east
coast of the United States.  Additional information on this system
can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Channel
northeastward across the southern Florida peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slight development of
this system is possible on Tuesday when it moves off the southeast
U.S. coast.  The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal
boundary and developing low off the east coast of the United States
by Wednesday, and no further development is anticipated after that
time.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the the southern Florida
peninsula during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Ramos/Cangialosi