000
ABNT20 KNHC 212321
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located less than 100 miles east of Barbados have not become any
better organized during the day, and the system does not have a
well-defined circulation.  However, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission
earlier this afternoon indicated that the wave is producing winds
to 35 mph.  At least gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
during the next couple of days while it moves westward and
then northwestward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  This system is then expected to
turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on
Tuesday.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple
of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.  Interests across the eastern
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg