474 
ABNT20 KNHC 211149
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands
on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development
and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early
next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure centered near the eastern tip of Cuba
continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days due
to strong upper-level winds and interaction with land. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially
causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky