000
ABNT20 KNHC 210558
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday
or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on
those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues
to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Due to
strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is
not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the
next couple of days.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba
through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
by Sunday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart