000
ABNT20 KNHC 161135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located more than 700 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located over the central tropical
Atlantic.  Satellite data also indicate that the low has become
better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface
trough.  Little, if any, development of this system is expected
before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast tonight or
Tuesday.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the central and
upper Texas coastal areas later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart