000
ABNT20 KNHC 102312
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls.  Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity,
some slight development of this system is still possible tonight and
Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.  This disturbance
is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart