000
ABNT20 KNHC 011150
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located near the Abacos.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves generally northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple
of days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another broad area of low pressure is located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is producing limited and
disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly
westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward
or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky