000
ABNT20 KNHC 241518
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1120 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the low pressure
area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the formation of Tropical
Depression Five, and the aircraft for the Florida low.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of
Barbados.

A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Significant development of the low is unlikely
today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida
peninsula.  However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon has been canceled. Another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a low
pressure area has formed just off the upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
shows signs of organization.  However, the system is likely to move
inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before significant
development can occur.  Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and
eastern Texas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Beven