000
ABNT20 KNHC 120500
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near
the Leeward Islands northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for
several hundred miles is associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave and an upper-level trough.  Showers and thunderstorms
associated with this disturbance have changed little in organization
tonight, however environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive to allow for the potential development of a
tropical or subtropical cyclone by the middle of the week.  The
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the
next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown