000
ABNT20 KNHC 141734
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad, low-latitude tropical wave located more than 800 miles east
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system should
be slow to occur during the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America.  This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of disturbed weather has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in association with a large low pressure system
located more than 200 miles east-southeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras
border.  Upper-air data indicate that the system has become better
defined over the past couple of days.  However, the surface
circulation remains broad and upper-level winds are expected to be
only marginally favorable for any development to occur while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of
days, reaching Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday or early
Tuesday.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of Central America Tuesday through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart