000
ABNT20 KNHC 042314
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that an area of low
pressure is located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border
of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward through Hispaniola. Upper-level winds are not currently
favorable for tropical cyclone formation, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become less hostile and a tropical
depression could form by late this weekend or early next week in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico as the
system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains
primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila