169 
ABNT20 KNHC 140514
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, near the North Carolina coast, on Tropical Storm Helene,
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac,
located in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Storm
Joyce, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

Shower activity has changed little in organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure located over the western Gulf of
Mexico.  Although upper-level winds appear conducive for
development, this low only has a short period of time to develop
into a tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern
Mexico and southern Texas later today.  An Air Force reconnaissance
plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if
necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas
later today and Saturday.  Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form near Bermuda late this
weekend or early next week.  Additional development, if any, is
expected to be slow while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi