851 
ABNT20 KNHC 112302
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

An area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to show
some signs of organization.  Upper-levels winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico.  If necessary, an Air Force
reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores within the next day or
so.  Environmental conditions are conducive for some development,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of
the week while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch