509 
ABNT20 KNHC 110513
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, however, there are still no
signs of a surface circulation.  This system is forecast to move
slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula today with limited
development.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development later in the week, and a tropical
depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across
northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and Louisiana should
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a
trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week
while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi