000
ABNT20 KNHC 050501
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles to the
southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak trough of low
pressure.  This system appears to be less organized, and the
potential for a tropical depression to form is diminishing. However,
environmental conditions are still conducive for some development
before the end of the week, while the system moves west-
northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast
of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to interact
with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well
organized, and a tropical depression could form at any time soon.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, in a few
days, the upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and
the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure
before it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila